yourswimbook.com

If you are a swimmer who loves to chart your progress and zero in on your areas for improvement, Your Swim Book is a product you may enjoy.  Check it out here:

http://www.yourswimlog.com/ysb/

I would have loved this while swimming on the YMCA swim team as a kid.  It would be a great way to stay motivated about your workouts.

Work that 100m Free Ryan!!!

It's been a while, but I was thinking ahead about 2015 Worlds in Russia, and it occurred to me that Ryan could swim 5 events:  200m free, 200m IM, 800m free relay, 400m free relay and 400m medley relay.

The first four events are givens.  But the 400m medley relay?  How would he be able to swim this?

The top 7 swimmers in the 100m free at 2014 U.S. Nationals all qualified for 2015 Worlds.  Those swimmers are:

Nathan Adrian:                48.31
Ryan Lochte:                   48.96
Jimmy Feigen:                 48.98
Conor Dwyer:                  49.06
Anthony Ervin:                49.08
Matt Grevers:                   49.12
Michael Phelps:               49.17

The Pan Pacs top 100m free swims are:

Nathan Adrian:                 48.30  - A Final
Michael Phelps:                48.51 -  A Final
Anthony Ervin:                 49.20 - B Final

Pan Pacs Prelims:

Ryan Lochte:                   48.90
Jimmy Feigen:                 49.14
Conor Dwyer:                  49.19
Matt Grevers:                   49.76
Cullen Jones:                   50.68

If you combine the two meets and take the fastest times for each swimmer, the rankings are:

Nathan Adriam:              48.30
Michael Phelps:              48.51
Ryan Lochte:                  48.90 (or 49.96 if you don't want to count prelims)
Jimmy Feigen:                48.98
Conor Dwyer:                 49.06
Anthony Ervin:               49.08
Matt Grevers:                 49.12
Cullen Jones:                  50.68

Here's how the 400m medley relay comes into play.  The top two swimmers in the 100m free usually get the spots on the morning and evening relays, i.e. Michael Phelps would swim the free leg in the morning and Nathan Adrian would swim it in the evening.  But, Michael Phelps qualified the fastest in the 100m fly and will be swimming that leg in the evening.  It is doubtful he would swim the free leg in the morning.  Who is the next fastest qualifier?  Ryan Lochte.

Could he be put on the free leg of the 400m medley relay for the prelim/morning swim?  It's a definitely possibility.  Because it is the coach's choice, it will depend on several factors:

1. How does he do in the 400m free relay which is usually earlier (the 400m medley relay is typically the last event of the meet).
2. What coach makes the decision.
3. Is someone else hot that week, or during training camp.  For instance, if Jimmy Feigen or Anthony Ervin are swimming super fast that week either one could be put on the free leg of the prelim swim because both are freestyle sprinters.

I just thought it was an interesting way to swim in a 5th event and qualify for the 400m medley relay after the somewhat disappointing 100m fly swims at Nationals and Pan Pacs.

According to SwimSwam, Sun Yang is out of the 200m freestyle at Worlds

http://swimswam.com/sun-yang-will-only-swim-two-events-at-world-championships/

Due to lack of conditioning, apparently.  I guess the rumors were true.  Now we need to see if Agnel is going to swim it.

2013 Worlds Preview - Men's 200m free

Prediction:  Ryan Lochte wins gold.

I really agonized over this prediction and changed my mind multiple times.  Here is my analysis, which is based 50% on numbers/history and 50% on believing in Ryan's abilities and not wanting to sell him short.  Some of Ryan's performances in the 2012 Olympics, including the 200m free, were disappointing.  But I think given his wealth of racing experience, the depth of his training base and his mental/physical abilities he will come out on top in this event.

Many of the best performers in the 200m freestyle - Michael Phelps, Paul Biedermann (Germany), Tae Hwan Park (South Korea) and Yannick Agnel (France) - have said they are not competing in Barcelona.  But is that true for all of them?  Agnel announced in May that he would swim only relays.  Yet recently, strong rumors have emerged (see comments to this Swimswam article - http://swimswam.com/french-open/) suggesting that Agnel has changed his mind and will indeed swim the 200m free individual event.

Sun Yang (China) is the current favorite.  Others who are expected to do well are Jeremy Stravius (France)(best time in 2013 1:45.61), Thomas Fraser-Holmes (Australia)(best time in 2013 1:45.79), Cameron McEvoy (Australia) (best time in 2013 1:46.03), Conor Dwyer (USA)(best time in 2013 1:46.25), Kosuke Hagino (Japan)(best time in 2013 1:46.28), Danila Izotov (Russia)(best time in 2013 1:46.37) and Nikita Lobintsev (Russia)(best time in 2013 1:46.59).  Sun Yang, Agnel, Stravius and Fraser-Holmes have all swum this event faster than Ryan this year.

Here is a comparison of Ryan's best times in recent years in comparison with Agnel and Sun Yang.  Both are age 21, which is quite a bit younger than Ryan at nearly age 29.  Sun Yang has only recently begun competing in the 200m free as an individual event, having focused on the longer freestyle events.  Thus, Ryan has more international experience than both of them.

Ryan's best times in the 200m free since 2008:

Flat Start
2008:  1:45.61 (semi-finals Olympic trials)
2009:  1:45.66 (finals - Nationals)
2010:  1:45.78 (finals - Nationals)
2010:  1:45.30 (finals - Pan Pacs)
2011:  1:44.44 (finals - World Championships)
2012:  1:45.75 (finals - Olympic trials)
2012:  1:45.04 (finals - Olympics)
2012:  1:45.15 (finals - Olympics - 4x200 free relay - flat start)
2013:  1:45.97 (finals - Nationals)

Relay Start
2008:  1:44.28 (4x200 free relay in Olympic finals - relay start)
2009:  1:44.46 (4x200 free relay World Championships finals - relay start)
2010:  1:45.27 (4x200 free relay Pan Pacs finals - relay start)
2011:  1:44.56 (4x200 free relay World Championships finals - relay start)

Agnel's best times since 2010:

Flat Start
2010:  1:47:52 (finals - French Nationals)
2010:  1:45.83 (finals - European Championships - 4x200 free relay - flat start)
2011:  1:45.47 (finals - French Nationals)
2011:  1:44.99 (finals - World Championships)
2011:  1:45.25 (finals World Championships - 4x200 free relay - flat start)
2012:  1:44.42 (finals - French Olympic trials)
2012:  1:43.14 (finals - Olympics)
2013:  1:45.48 (finals - French World Championship Trials - was sick during this meet)

Relay Start
2012:  1:43.24 (4x200 free relay in Olympics finals - relay start)

Sun Yang's best times since 2010
Flat Start
2010:  1:46.25 (finals - Asian Games)
2012:  1:44.93 (finals - Olympics)
2013:  1:44.99 (finals - China Nationals)

Relay Start
2011:  1:45.14 (4x200 free relay in World Championship finals - relay start)
2012:  1:45.55 (4x200 free relay in Olympics finals - relay start)

Here is why I believe Ryan will win gold in Barcelona.

• Ryan has swum this race internationally since 2010, the same as Agnel and Sun Yang.  Nevertheless, Ryan has been swimming the 200 free against a tough US field (including Michael Phelps) since 2003-04 and internationally on the 4 x 200 free relay since 2004.  He has a lot more racing experience than Agnel and Sun Yang, who do not have as much competition among their own countrymen.  
• Ryan has superior walls.  Although Ryan's swimming training has been off post-Olympics, he has kept up with his weight training.  This means his legs are still strong and his push-offs are still quick.  Ryan should come out of the third turn with a nice lead.  He just needs to hold on for the last 50m for the win..
• Which brings me to the base.  This past year notwithstanding, Ryan's yardage has been consistently high since 2002 when he began swimming for Gregg Troy at Florida.  He will be able to draw this base in Barcelona.  Agnel and Sun Yang have reportedly also had inconsistent training since the Olympics, with Agnel changing coaches and officially dropping the individual events at Worlds see, http://swimswam.com/yannick-agnel-headed-to-us-to-train-will-swim-only-relays-at-world-championships/ and Sun Yang being disciplined by his Chinese coach in February 2013 for not adhering to his training schedule see, http://swimswam.com/sun-yang/.         
• I think the winning time will be somewhere around 1:44.5.  Ryan has consistently performed in the 1:45 range for the past 5 to 6 years and has gone 1:44.4 previously.  With more rest this year not training for the grueling 400m IM, his speed should be increased.  Agnel has obviously swum a lot faster than 1:44.5 and although Sun Yang has not, he has incredible endurance and back end speed and certainly has the ability to go that fast or faster.  Ryan will need to use his greater experience and walls to win.
• Ryan has done well with the double taper in the past.  It's unlikely he tapered as much for US trials as he did in 2012.  The combination of focused training in April and May and the additional rest before Barcelona will hopefully help with speed. 

Here are videos from some of the more recent 200m free international events and from US Olympic trials in 2012.

2012 Olympics - finals (yes still painful)



2012 Olympic trials (US) - finals



2011 World Championships - finals



2010 Pan Pacs - finals

Ryan Lochte post-swim interviews at Nationals - from SwimmingWorld Magazine

After the 100m fly



After the 200m IM



After the 200m free/200m back double



After the 100m free

200m IM and 100m Fly results

200m IM



100m Fly - watch the finish. Ryan definitely would have won if he hadn't glided to the finish.  This must be what he means when he says he is still learning how to swim this event.

Ryan's events at World Championships

World Championships begin on Sunday, July 28th, exactly 4 weeks from today.  This is my analysis of the individual events Ryan is entered in.  The relays are discussed briefly, but I would like to do a separate analysis devoted solely to the relays.

Sunday, July 28th

4 x 100m free relay - prelims and finals

Ryan finished 4th in the 100m free at Nationals.  This automatically qualifies him for the relay, yet the lineup is a coach's decision.  Bob Bowman in the head men's coach.  Ryan's coach, Gregg Troy, is not an assistant coach for the men's team.  I don't know if that means he will not be making the trip to Barcelona or if he will still go to coach Ryan, just not officially.

Does Ryan automatically get the evening only swim?  Or does he have to swim the prelims to prove he's worthy of the finals.  It will be interesting to find out.  I suspect Ryan will have to swim in the prelims and prove he is fast enough to swim in the finals.

Monday, July 29th

200m free - prelims and semi-finals

Tuesday, July 30th

200m free - finals

Ryan posted the 5th fastest time of 2013 at Nationals - 1:45.97.  Those with faster times are:

• Sun Yang 1:44.99
• Yannick Agnel 1:45.48
• Jeremy Stravius 1:45.61
• Thomas Fraser-Holmes 1:45.79.  

Rounding out the top 10 times of the year are:

• Cameron McEvoy 1:46.03
• Conor Dwyer 1:46.25
• Kosuke Hagino 1:46.28
• Danila Izotov 1:46.37
• Nikita Lobintsev 1:46.59

I think Ryan has a good chance to medal in this event at Worlds.  There are a lot of big names missing.  Agnel is not going to swim it.  Neither is Tae Hwan Park nor Paul Beidermann.  The only other swimmer in the top 10 who has beat Ryan previously is Sun Yang.  While Yang is absolutely formidable, if Ryan can rest his legs more in the next 4 weeks and regain his devastating walls, I think he can beat Yang.

Wednesday, July 31st

200 IM - prelims and semi-finals

Thursday, August 1st

200 back - prelims and semi-finals

200 IM - finals

Ryan posted the fastest time of 2013 in the 200m IM at Nationals - 1:55.44.  The other swimmers in the top 10 include:

• Kosuke Hagino 1:55.74
• Henrique Rodrigues 1:57.37
• Thiago Pereira 1:57.48
• Shun Wang 1:57.50
• Daniel Tranter 1:57.55
• Conor Dwyer 1:57.74
• Jeremy Stravius 1:57.89
• Dayia Seto 1:58.14 (tied for 9th)
• Roberto Pavoni 1:58.14 (tied for 9th)

This is Ryan's best chance for a gold medal.  No other swimmer in the top 10 has been below 1:55 and Ryan has done it multiple times.  Hagino is intriguing though and probably has the best chance of giving Ryan a fight.  I hope he does because that may push Ryan toward a record.  It's difficult to imagine him breaking his WR and getting below 1:54 without racing Michael Phelps, but this is one of his best chances, especially if he is pushed by Hagino.  Having the 200m back prelims that morning before the 200m IM finals is not going to hurt Ryan.

Friday, August 2nd

200m back - finals

100m fly - prelims and semi-finals

4 x 200m free relay - prelims and finals

Friday is Ryan's toughest day.  He has a triple in the evening, one of which is a final in his toughest event.  This day is really going to test Ryan's training and abilities.

Ryan posted the 3rd fastest time in 2013 in the 200m back at Nationals - 1:55.16.  The 2 faster times are:

• Ryosuke Irie 1:54.72
• Kosuke Hagino 1:55.12

The rest of the top 10 are:

• Tyler Clary 1:55.58
• Radoslaw Kawecki 1:56.14
• Craig McNally 1:56.36
• Ryan Murphy 1:56.37 (not swimming in Barcelona)
• Peter Berneck 1:56.54
• Matson Lawson 1:56.59
• Yannick Lebherz 1:56.71

The 200m back will be Ryan's toughest event - even tougher than the 200m free.  Irie has always been a difficult challenge, beating Ryan in 2009 in Rome and in 2012 in London.  Hagino I believe has never been below 1:55 so I'm not as concerned about him.  Clary is certainly capable of winning as he proved in London.  This is going to be a tough race.  Ryan likely will only have the 100m fly prelims in the morning and the 200m back final is the first men's race of Friday evening.  Thus, fatigue should not be a factor in the 200m back, except that the race comes toward the end of a long week.

Ryan will probably anchor the 4 x 200 free relay or lead it off with Conor Dwyer as anchor.  I know Ricky Berens did not swim his best at Nationals, but I could also see him leading off or anchoring this relay.

Saturday, August 3rd

100m fly - finals

Ryan posted the 6th fastest time in 2013 in the 100m fly at trials - 51.71.  The five faster times are:

• Steffan Diebler 51.19
• Evgeny Korotyshkin 51.53
• Chad LeClos 51.64
• Eugene Godsoe 51.66
• Matteo Rivolta 51.70

The rest of the top 10 is:

• Christopher Wright 51.77
• Konrad Czerniak 51.79
• Timothy Philips 51.86 (not swimming in Barcelona)
• Michael Rock 51.91

Ryan will have a tough time medaling in this event.  All of the five swimmers above him are formidable opponents with a lot of experience in this event.  Eugene Godsoe may be new to the international scene, but he's a very experienced swimmer and has swum this event for years.  As Ryan said at trials, he is still learning how to swim it.  As soon as I find the video of the 100m fly from trials, I encourage you to watch the end, where Ryan glided to the wall and not only lost the race but almost came in 3rd.  Over the next 4 weeks he should be able to fine-tune his 100m fly to improve dramatically.  He has the speed and endurance to do very well in this event the only question is does he have the experience.  

Sunday, August 4th

4 x 100m medley relay - prelims and finals

The issue here is will Ryan be chosen by Coach Bowman to swim in the prelims or the finals.  I think it depends on how he does in the 100m fly individual event.  If he does well but Godsoe is faster, then Ryan will swim in the prelims.  If Ryan does better than Godsoe in the individual event, he will swim in the finals of the relay.