Everyone knows Ryan is entered in 11 events. I don't think he'll swim the 400m free (unless god forbid he hurts his groin and can't swim breaststroke or some other unforeseen injury) or the 100m breast because they fall on the same day as the 400m IM. He won't swim the 200m fly because it conflicts with the 100m free. He won't swim the 50m free because it's not his event and he has no chance of a top 2 finish. This leaves the following 7 events:
400m IM (Day 1 - heats & finals)
100m back (Day 2 heats & semis; Day 3 finals)
200m free (Day 2 heats & semis; Day 3 finals)
100m free (Day 4 heats & semis; Day 5 finals)
200m back (Day 5 heats & semis; Day 6 finals)
200m IM (Day 5 heats & semis; Day 6 finals)
100m fly (Day 6 heats & semis; Day 7 finals)
The 400 IM, 200 free, 200 back and 200 IM are givens. He's the reigning world champion in these events and he has the chance to not only finish 1st or 2nd at trials in all of them, but to win gold at the Olympics. The question is what other events does he swim?
The conventional wisdom is that he'll try to place in the top two in the 100 back, which would also place him on the 400 medley relay. The conventional wisdom is also that he'll swim the 100 free up to the semi-finals to put up a good enough time for the 400 free relay. I don't think that is the most effective use of his time and energy.
My guess is he tries for a top two finish in the 100 free. Qualifying for the 100 free gives him three events: the 100 free (individually), the 400 free relay and the 400 medley relay. He has demonstrated the ability to do it. He finished second in the 100 free at the US Nationals in 2010. He had the second fastest time in the 100 free at the US Nationals in 2009. Yes, his time was swum in the semi-finals and not the finals, but it was the second fastest. He could decide to drop the 100 free as an individual event at the Olympics, which would still give him seven events if everything goes well: 400 IM, 200 free, 200 back, 200 IM and all three relays.
Can he swim a top two time in the 100 free? Let's look at the schedule. The biggest difficulty in achieving this is that the finals of the 100 free are on Day 5, the same day as the heats & semis in the 200 back and the 200 IM. While Ryan does not have to swim all out in the semis of those events to make the final 8, he's definitely going to be tired when he swims the 100 free final, which is sandwiched in between the 200 back semi and the 200 IM semi. I think he can do it.
What about the 100 back and the 100 fly? He may swim the prelims and semis in the 100 back to see what kind of a time he posts but I would not be surprised at all if he scratches that event altogether. I think he'll swim the 100 fly only if he does not do well in the 100 free, has some gas left in the tank at the end of the meet, and wants to give another shot at qualifying for the medley relay.
No comments:
Post a Comment