Ryan Lochte Swimming: July 2013

Prediction: Ryan Lochte wins gold.

I really agonized over this prediction and changed my mind multiple times. Here is my analysis, which is based 50% on numbers/history and 50% on believing in Ryan's abilities and not wanting to sell him short. Some of Ryan's performances in the 2012 Olympics, including the 200m free, were disappointing. But I think given his wealth of racing experience, the depth of his training base and his mental/physical abilities he will come out on top in this event.

Many of the best performers in the 200m freestyle - Michael Phelps, Paul Biedermann (Germany), Tae Hwan Park (South Korea) and Yannick Agnel (France) - have said they are not competing in Barcelona. But is that true for all of them? Agnel announced in May that he would swim only relays. Yet recently, strong rumors have emerged (see comments to this Swimswam article - http://swimswam.com/french-open/) suggesting that Agnel has changed his mind and will indeed swim the 200m free individual event.

Sun Yang (China) is the current favorite. Others who are expected to do well are Jeremy Stravius (France)(best time in 2013 1:45.61), Thomas Fraser-Holmes (Australia)(best time in 2013 1:45.79), Cameron McEvoy (Australia) (best time in 2013 1:46.03), Conor Dwyer (USA)(best time in 2013 1:46.25), Kosuke Hagino (Japan)(best time in 2013 1:46.28), Danila Izotov (Russia)(best time in 2013 1:46.37) and Nikita Lobintsev (Russia)(best time in 2013 1:46.59). Sun Yang, Agnel, Stravius and Fraser-Holmes have all swum this event faster than Ryan this year.

Here is a comparison of Ryan's best times in recent years in comparison with Agnel and Sun Yang. Both are age 21, which is quite a bit younger than Ryan at nearly age 29. Sun Yang has only recently begun competing in the 200m free as an individual event, having focused on the longer freestyle events. Thus, Ryan has more international experience than both of them.

Ryan's best times in the 200m free since 2008:

Flat Start
2008: 1:45.61 (semi-finals Olympic trials)
2009: 1:45.66 (finals - Nationals)
2010: 1:45.78 (finals - Nationals)
2010: 1:45.30 (finals - Pan Pacs)
2011: 1:44.44 (finals - World Championships)
2012: 1:45.75 (finals - Olympic trials)
2012: 1:45.04 (finals - Olympics)
2012: 1:45.15 (finals - Olympics - 4x200 free relay - flat start)
2013: 1:45.97 (finals - Nationals)

Relay Start
2008: 1:44.28 (4x200 free relay in Olympic finals - relay start)
2009: 1:44.46 (4x200 free relay World Championships finals - relay start)
2010: 1:45.27 (4x200 free relay Pan Pacs finals - relay start)
2011: 1:44.56 (4x200 free relay World Championships finals - relay start)

Agnel's best times since 2010:

Flat Start
2010: 1:47:52 (finals - French Nationals)
2010: 1:45.83 (finals - European Championships - 4x200 free relay - flat start)
2011: 1:45.47 (finals - French Nationals)
2011: 1:44.99 (finals - World Championships)
2011: 1:45.25 (finals World Championships - 4x200 free relay - flat start)
2012: 1:44.42 (finals - French Olympic trials)
2012: 1:43.14 (finals - Olympics)
2013: 1:45.48 (finals - French World Championship Trials - was sick during this meet)

Relay Start
2012: 1:43.24 (4x200 free relay in Olympics finals - relay start)

Sun Yang's best times since 2010
Flat Start
2010: 1:46.25 (finals - Asian Games)
2012: 1:44.93 (finals - Olympics)
2013: 1:44.99 (finals - China Nationals)

Relay Start
2011: 1:45.14 (4x200 free relay in World Championship finals - relay start)
2012: 1:45.55 (4x200 free relay in Olympics finals - relay start)

Here is why I believe Ryan will win gold in Barcelona.

Ryan has swum this race internationally since 2010, the same as Agnel and Sun Yang. Nevertheless, Ryan has been swimming the 200 free against a tough US field (including Michael Phelps) since 2003-04 and internationally on the 4 x 200 free relay since 2004. He has a lot more racing experience than Agnel and Sun Yang, who do not have as much competition among their own countrymen.
Ryan has superior walls. Although Ryan's swimming training has been off post-Olympics, he has kept up with his weight training. This means his legs are still strong and his push-offs are still quick. Ryan should come out of the third turn with a nice lead. He just needs to hold on for the last 50m for the win..
Which brings me to the base. This past year notwithstanding, Ryan's yardage has been consistently high since 2002 when he began swimming for Gregg Troy at Florida. He will be able to draw this base in Barcelona. Agnel and Sun Yang have reportedly also had inconsistent training since the Olympics, with Agnel changing coaches and officially dropping the individual events at Worlds see, http://swimswam.com/yannick-agnel-headed-to-us-to-train-will-swim-only-relays-at-world-championships/ and Sun Yang being disciplined by his Chinese coach in February 2013 for not adhering to his training schedule see, http://swimswam.com/sun-yang/.
I think the winning time will be somewhere around 1:44.5. Ryan has consistently performed in the 1:45 range for the past 5 to 6 years and has gone 1:44.4 previously. With more rest this year not training for the grueling 400m IM, his speed should be increased. Agnel has obviously swum a lot faster than 1:44.5 and although Sun Yang has not, he has incredible endurance and back end speed and certainly has the ability to go that fast or faster. Ryan will need to use his greater experience and walls to win.
Ryan has done well with the double taper in the past. It's unlikely he tapered as much for US trials as he did in 2012. The combination of focused training in April and May and the additional rest before Barcelona will hopefully help with speed.

Here are videos from some of the more recent 200m free international events and from US Olympic trials in 2012.

2012 Olympics - finals (yes still painful)

2012 Olympic trials (US) - finals

2011 World Championships - finals

2010 Pan Pacs - finals