200m Back

200m back is obviously Ryan's best event in Long Course. He won gold in Beijing and holds the world record.

Who will possibly challenge him in 2009 in making the U.S. team for the World Championships? Based on the the results at the 2008 Olympic trials and other recent news, here are 5 swimmers to watch for this event:

1. Aaron Peirsol
2. Michael Phelps
3. Tyler Clary
4. Rex Tullius
5. Nick Thoman

Peirsol is obvious. His success in this event is evident, and his times over the past 2 years have been equal to or slightly greater than Ryan's. In thinking about the swimmer vs. athlete issue for LC success, it seems that Aaron Peirsol is more of a swimmer than an athlete. Aaron always seems to pull ahead of Ryan during the swimming part of the race and Ryan seems to pull ahead of Aaron during the turns/walls and on overall endurance. If it is true that better swimmers beat better athletes in LC events, then Aaron would seem to have the edge. However, swimming experts say that 200 back is the hardest event on the swimmer's legs and thus endurance and athleticism seem to be a key components. It may be that the "swimmer vs. athlete" maxim does not apply to 200m back. Interesting to think about.

Phelps has indicated recently he may want to swim the 200m back. I say bring it on. MP's involvment in this event would surely provide Ryan with plenty of additional incentive to work hard and improve. It would be so exciting to see Ryan and Michael go head to head in the 200 back. I definitely think Ryan can win.

The other three guys - Clary, Tullius and Thoman - are really talented and very interesting prospects because they are so young. They could conceivably improve in this event over the next 3.5 yrs as much as Ryan did from 2004 to 2008. According to http://www.swimrankings.net/, at the 2004 Olympic trials, Ryan did not even swim 200m back. In fact, his best time in 2004 was 2:02.21. Ryan first swam 200 back in an international LC competition at the 2005 World Championships, where he won a bronze with a time of 1:57.00. Thus, from 2004 to now, Ryan dropped more than 8 seconds off his time down to the current WR of 1:53.94. Amazing!!

Can Clary, Tullius or Thoman do the same? It's certainly possible. It's going to be difficult to assess the progress of Tullius and Clary over the next several months given that they are in college and swimming mostly SC yards. Nevertheless, they are both capable of huge improvement, as is Thoman (who was training at Longhorn Aquatics with Peirsol but recently moved to Florida), and thus it will be interesting to watch. Tullius is at Florida and trains with Ryan so they should be able to push each other quite a bit. Thoman seems to be more of a sprinter, but if he concentrates on 200 back he could be a threat.

If I had to bet on one of them, I'd put money on Clary. He seems to be better at the more grueling races and he came in 3rd in the 200 back at the Olympic trials. Tyler is training hard. GMM's recent interview with him was very interesting. It won't embed here for some reason but can be viewed here:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jzJOazHKxfI

Another interesting question is whether Ryan will continue to improve in this event. As indicated above, from 2004 to 2008, Ryan improved his time by more than 8 seconds. Peirsol, on the other hand, placed first in the 200 back at the Athens Olympics with a time of 1:54.95 and his best time now is 1:54.32, an improvement of only 0.63. The question is whether Ryan will continue to improve at the same rate as the last four years or if his times have leveled off like Peirsol's.