THE BUZZ: IS IT REALLY A RIVARLY? (Phelps v. Lochte)

By Mike Gustafson

http://www.usaswimming.org/ViewNewsArticle.aspx?TabId=1&itemid=3928&mid=8712&utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

It’s like that old saying: “You can’t have one without the other.”

“Michael Phelps vs. Ryan Lochte” might go down as the greatest rivalry in the history of Olympic sports. Sportswriters might write about it for years to come. Movies made. HBO films written. It might become as important as “Bird vs. Magic” in the history of sports legend. You might tell your children’s children about that time you witnessed, first-hand, the epic battle that was “Phelps v. Lochte” the same way people talk about Ali v. Frazier or Magic v. Bird. That’s because our current two best swimmers in the world, Michael Phelps and Ryan Lochte, will begin a legendary journey this weekend at the Minneapolis Grand Prix that will culminate at the London Olympics. “Phelps v. Lochte” has the type of potential to become one of sport’s greatest rivalries.

Then again, it might not.

So much has been written about the “rivalry” between Michael Phelps and Ryan Lochte. To be honest, I am of two-minds. On the one hand, this rivalry should be as big as it gets. You have the Greatest Swimmer of All-Time vs. someone who has beaten his world records. You have a 16-time Olympic medalist vs. someone who COULD win 16 Olympic medals (Lochte currently has 6). They swim the same events. They are around the same age. They swim for the same country.

But is it a rivalry?

To help sift through this, I sucked down a quart of coffee. Then I constructed an internal “Point/Counter-Point” debate with myself. The hope is that by the conclusion of the monologue, I will come to a decision about this pressing question in our sport:

Is “Phelps vs. Lochte” really a rivalry?
Point: Of course it is.

Michael Phelps needs no introduction: He’s like Michael Jordan of swimming, the legend, the man with the championships. Ryan Lochte also needs no introduction: He’s like the Kobe Bryant of swimming, the “new” champion, the rising star, also with some championships. Comparing these two always seems like the typical question most sportswriters ask, “Who is better – Michael Jordan or Kobe Bryant?” You can argue all day, but the argument won’t get anywhere. Jordan and Kobe never competed against each other, in their prime, at the same time.

But there’s the thing: Phelps and Lochte ARE in their prime. They’re NOT like Jordan and Kobe; they’re like Magic and Bird. One could argue that Phelps’ prime of his career was three years ago in Beijing when he scored an unprecedented 8 gold medals. Tough to argue with that. One could also argue that Ryan Lochte’s prime is yet to come – probably in London, a few months from today. Tough to argue with that, too.

But I don’t buy it.

Here, you have the two most popular and dominant male swimmers from the past few years battling each other in the same events. The 200m freestyle. The 200m IM. Possibly the 100m or 200m backstroke. Possibly the 100m freestyle. And they are on the same team. The stakes are higher. The pressure is greater. There can only be one.

Really, it comes down to that 200m IM. The individual medley has long been known as the Ultimate Decider. The 200 IM is the litmus test that gauges who, exactly, is the Best All-Around Swimmer in the pool. Phelps has declared that he will never swim the 400IM again in a major competition. So that leaves the 200 IM as the only event these two can square off in. Meanwhile, Lochte has wrestled the 200 IM world record away from Phelps. Which means Lochte is faster. Which means, if Phelps decides he still wants to compete in the 200 IM, he HAS to be considered an underdog…

Which leads me to my point: How can “The Greatest,” competing in his prime, be an underdog?

He can’t. Can’t happen. Doesn’t make sense, logically. Which either means one of two things: 1.) Phelps is beyond his prime, or 2.) Lochte is as good as Phelps. Personally, I don’t believe Phelps his beyond his prime. Phelps will be as good in London as he was in Beijing. The only difference is that Lochte will be much, much better than he was four years ago. This must be considered a true rivalry. And it’s one that could go down as one of the greatest sports rivalries ever.

You’re saying this isn’t a rivalry? Then you need to get your head checked, Mike.

Counter-Point: Mike, you ignorant fool.

You say these two are similar to Magic and Bird? I can see that. I can buy your argument that each are in their prime and that SOMETIMES they compete against each other. Sure, Phelps lost a few races and records along the way. But he’s still in good shape, and is still young. And Lochte is also reaching his prime. These two are both near their “full potential.” This is about as close as we swim fans are ever going to get witnessing the two best swimmers in the world, each very near the prime of their respective careers. I will agree with you on that.

But just one thing.

Phelps and Lochte are on the same team.

I understand this reaches a point of philosophical debate: Is it really a rivalry if you are on the same team? That debate goes into other debates, such as if swimming is an individualistic sport vs. a team-based sport. Of course, I would argue that it is a team sport. Even though no one physically “helps” you during a race, swimming really is a team sport. Phelps doesn’t train on his own. Lochte doesn’t swim relays on his own. How many of Phelps’ Olympic gold medals are from relays? Nearly 1/3 of them. Not a ton, but significant enough. Without the help of a legendary push by Jason Lezak, Phelps might not be viewed as legendary as he is today.

So, because Phelps and Lochte are on the SAME TEAM, this will never reach a true “Ali vs. Frazier” or “Bird vs. Magic” type of rivalry. Because they share the same goals. It is very possible that Ryan Lochte and Michael Phelps will be on the same relays in London. It’s happened before. And in that question, when you have two people HELPING each other achieve goals of winning a gold, does “Phelps vs. Lochte” become a real, true, sport-changing rivalry?

Australia in the early 2000s was a rivalry. France in freestyle relays is now a rivalry. The United States and these countries competed against each other, no matter what, at all times. And it was exciting. It was thrilling. They were oppositional forces colliding for one goal. To have a solid foundation for a rivalry, two forces must be opposed against each other. For example, Ali vs. Frazier. Classic example of “mano a mano.” And right now, sure, Phelps and Lochte might compete against each other in some events, but they also HELP each other.

And that’s the difference.

How can TEAMMATES be epic, sports-changing, legendary rivals?

They are still competitive, don’t get me wrong. But there is a very big difference between friendly (or not-so-friendly) competition and a sport-changing, transcendent, legendary Olympic rivalry. We will be treated to good races. But it will be nothing like the “Miracle On Ice” or “Bird vs. Magic” other great sports rivalries. A rival competes against each other for the same job, the same goal, the same victory. The last time I checked, Phelps and Lochte both wore a “Team USA” swim cap, were both on relays, and both train together.

Conclusion: Well, I have to agree with Mike on this one. In order for this to become a great Olympic rivalry, we need one thing to happen:

They need to be on different teams.

Thankfully for us Team USA swimming fans, that ain’t gonna happen. We’re treated to two of the best swimmers in the world, who share the same goal. In my opinion, “Phelps vs. Lochte” will never become a true, real, lasting “rivalry.” And that’s OK. Sure, they will have some close, exciting, thrilling races. Sure, they are competitors and neither of them wants to lose. But ultimately, both Phelps and Lochte are Olympic veterans who understand that Team USA is bigger than any one person. Bigger than any race. Bigger than any rivalry. As long as these two friends and comrades finish 1-2 on the medal podium, then nothing else matters.

Right?

Ryan forgot to tie his suit in Beijing in the finals of the 200m back

After the 200m back in Beijing, Ryan told the Today Show that the tie on his suit came loose when he jumped in the water before the race.



In a recent interview with Universal Sports, Ryan admitted he forgot to tie it. That's kind of a big oops. It's amazing that he won under the circumstances. Ryan said he could have gone 1 second faster if the suit had been tied.
http://www.universalsports.com/ViewArticle.dbml?DB_OEM_ID=23000&ATCLID=3728980

Ryan also talked in the interview about how prior to the start of the Olympics, he got sick from drinking tap water in Beijing. It's in the past now, but I can't help but feel bad that this easily preventable illness hurt Ryan's performance in the 400m IM and kept him out of the 4 x 100m free relay prelims. I suspect he'll never make a mistake like that again when competing overseas.

In the interview Ryan says he is in hard training now, swimming 80,000 meters per week (12,000 - 16,000 meters a day for doubles and 6,000 - 7,000 meters a day for singles). He is also doing weight lifting and core exercises multiple times a week.

Ryan is planning to swim in both the Charlotte Ultraswim (May 14-17) and Santa Clara Grand Prix (June 11-14). Ryan said in the interview that Michael Phelps is going to start swimming the backstroke events. Phelps told ESPN last week that he plans to swim four events at the Ultraswim, including the 100/200 free and the 100 fly. Phelps did not reveal his final event, and there is speculation that it will either be the 100 back or 50 free. I do not think he will compete in the 200 back because it is just before the 100 free on the last day of the meet. Still, you never know.
http://sports.espn.go.com/oly/swimming/news/story?id=4089582

It's hard to wait for the U.S. nationals when most countries have already had their Rome qualifying event. It will be interesting to see what happens at the GP events in May and June.

2009 Spanish Open results + miscellaneous babbling

I can't find any news on Ryan's training and he has not entered in any meets lately so there's not much to write about. I have started forming opinions on a number of swimming topics, but am not ready to write about them without doing some more thinking. For instance, I believe Nick D'Arcy was screwed and I'm starting to think USA Swimming has squandered the opportunity to grow the sport after the Olympics. I could be really off base on these topics, though, and need to think about them some more and accumulate some evidence before articulating the basis for these opinions.

I did not write about the 2009 Spanish Open, which took place earlier this month. This was a mistake because there were some good results at that meet in events Ryan typically swims (100 & 200 back, 100 & 200 free, 200 & 400 IM).

Doug Van Wie, an American training in Europe, had some very impressive times: 1:47.88 in the 200m free and 54.94 in the 100m back. How exciting to be a young professional swimmer training in Europe. That is so cool. Smart move Doug Van Wie, I hope you are having the time of your life.

Aschwin Wildeboer of Spain swam the fastest time in the world in 2009 in the 100m back - 52.93. That is huge. Another 100m back swim under 53 seconds. Ryan has his work cut out for him in this event.

In the 400m IM a Hungarian named David Verraszto swam a 4:14.16, the 4th best time in the world this year. In the 200m IM a Portugese swimmer named Diogo Carvalho swam a 1:59.96, which is tied with Ryan for the 5th best time in the world this year.

In addition, Luca Marin, who came in 4th in the 400IM at the Olympics, swam a 4:13.10 at the Italian championships in March. He is deceptively fast in this event because fly is his weakest stroke so he always starts out behind but then catches up in the end.

The next meet that Ryan is expected to enter is the Charlotte Ultraswim on May 14-17. Tickets are super expensive, most likely because it will be Michael Phelps' first meet since the Olympics. The prices are $100 for all events for festival seating and $450 for assigned seating. That's very expensive for a swim meet and the ladies at Daily Reezy were saying it is almost twice as much as an all event ticket for the U.S. nationals.

It's been so long since Michael Phelps has competed, that I almost forgot how hugely famous he is compared to all of the other swimmers. It's amazing that his presence alone would drive prices that high, but it makes sense given that he's the only swimmer who is a household name. All eyes will be on him and I personally cannot wait to see what events he swims. An MP expert at Daily Reezy said MP is retooling his strokes. Nobody knows exactly what that means, but one theory is that he's changing to a straight-arm freestyle like Eamon Sullivan. If true, could this mean that Michael Phelps is going to be a pure sprinter from now on?

Floswimming.com Interviews with/about Tyler Clary at the NCAA Championships

I could not get these videos to embed, but they are well worth watching. Lots of really good questions and interesting answers.

http://www.floswimming.org/videos/coverage/view_video/234819-mens-division-i-ncaa-championships/164923-first-ncaa-final-tyler-clary-um

Floswimming.com interview with Tyler Clary after he broke the American record in the 400y IM. He seemed surprised that he broke the record, but it certainly was his goal. He said it a couple of times before today, including in the video just below this one. Tyler said Michael Phelps congratulated him by text after the race and wished him luck for the rest of the meet. That must have been a thrill.

www.floswimming.org/videos/coverage/view_video/234819-mens-division-i-ncaa-championships/164923-first-ncaa-final-tyler-clary-um

Flowswimming.com interview with Tyler Clary after he came in 2nd in the 200y IM. The questions are great and Tyler is really articulate.

http://www.floswimming.org/videos/coverage/view_video/234819-mens-division-i-ncaa-championships/164923-first-ncaa-final-tyler-clary-um

Flowswimming.com interview with Jon Urbanchek, Tyler Clary's coach at Michigan and also a U.S. National team coach. He believes Tyler can qualify for Worlds in the 400 IM this summer (he said MP is done with the event and alluded that Ryan may be done with it too). I hope Ryan will swim it one last time and qualify along with Tyler. I do not know if Laci Cseh is going to swim the 400 IM any longer. It's a wide open event.

Laszlo "Laci" Cseh

I was searching for updated information on Laszlo Cseh, wondering if he is training again and if he has entered into any competitions. Given that I cannot understand Hungarian, it was difficult to find out where Cseh is in his training. However, I did learn that his nickname is Laci, which is awesome. Also, I found some interesting videos on youtube.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IO5-jb4su0k



Here is a video of the 200 IM race at the Beijing Olympics where Michael Phelps won gold, Laci won silver and Ryan won bronze. Laci beat Ryan by only .01. The video is from Hungarian television. What really struck me watching this was how tired Michael looked after the race. The announcers talked about Ryan a lot....wonder what they said.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FfSfVODeriQ



Here's a video from Hungarian television of the 400IM race in Beijing. I forgot how great Ryan looked for the first 300 meters. He really went for it in the back and breast and then died at the end. Swimming as fast as possible in the middle 200 was the only chance Ryan had to beat Michael Phelps and win gold. Ryan could have swam a safer race and won silver. Although his race strategy ultimately did not work, it was a super gutsy move by Ryan, who was really sick at the time.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w0qWQgH4eQ4



Here's a video of the medal ceremony for the 200 IM at the Olympics. It starts with Laci receiving his silver medal and continues with Michael receiving his gold. I've always wanted to see this medal ceremony because photos show Michael and Ryan had such a great time. This doesn't show much, but it shows a little bit of the fun.

As soon as I find out when Laci will compete again, I will write about it. He must have some kind of qualifying meet coming up for worlds but I haven't yet figured out how it works, i.e. if Hungary has a separate national meet or if there is a combined European meet that serves as trials for all participating countries.

"It really is kind of harsh. It's just a picture."

Ryan's comment on Michael Phelps' 3-month suspension from USA Swimming.

Here's the official announcement:

USA Swimming has reprimanded Michael Phelps under its Code of Conduct by withdrawing financial support and the eligibility to compete for a period of three months effective today, February 5. This is not a situation where any anti-doping rule was violated, but we decided to send a strong message to Michael because he disappointed so many people, particularly the hundreds of thousands of USA Swimming member kids who look up to him as a role model and a hero. Michael has voluntarily accepted this reprimand and has committed to earn back our trust.

The Code of Conduct for the National Team (I'm assuming this is the one that applies) contains the following rule:

6. Team members and staff will refrain from any illegal or inappropriate
behavior that would detract from a positive image of the USA National Team
or be detrimental to its performance objectives.

The terms "inappropriate behavior" and "detract from a positive image" are subjective and undefined. This rule is ambiguous and does not support a reprimand for a photo taken when MP was not involved in competition or training, at a private party, and did not consent to being photographed. Moreover, punishment is unwarranted given that MP did not try to deny he was in the photo and immediately expressed regret for letting people down. MP has been publically embarrassed, lost endorsements and been hounded relentlessly by the papparazzi. This is punishment enough. USA Swimming did not need to add insult to injury by punishing him simply for being an icon for the sport. It's difficult to believe that any other swimmer on the national team would have been treated this way.

What makes the punishment even more lame is that it's meaningless in terms of MP's swimming career. He's wealthy and will not miss the monthly stipend, there are no major swim meets other than a couple of Grand Prix events in the next 3 months, and he will still be able to swim at the U.S. Nationals and World Championships. The people who lose out are swimming fans, who were looking forward to seeing MP back in the pool and racing. Now we have to wait another 3 months.

The punishment is not only harsh, it's unwarranted.

Swimming News!

It's been a while since there's been anything new to report swimming-wise for Ryan, but finally there's something small but signficant to write about.

Someone on Daily Reezy referenced a recent interview with Mark Schubert, director of the U.S. National Team, that contained the following quote:

Ryan Lochte is the best swimmer in the world except for Phelps, Schubert said. Lochte told Schubert, "I'm going to keep swimming until I beat Michael Phelps. A lot."

http://www.indystar.com/article/20090204/SPORTS/902040358/1004/SPORTS

The article also quoted Schubert as saying Michael Phelps resumed training in November and not January as has been widely reported.

I can't wait for Ryan and Michael to race again. It's great to hear that Ryan still has such a strong desire to compete and win. Michael is supposed to return to competition at the Grand Prix event in Austin, TX in March. Hopefully they will both be there.

Michael Phelps and Nick Thoman Training Together

The news was announced this week that Nick Thoman will be training with Michael Phelps and Bob Bowman in Baltimore. http://www.swimmingworldmagazine.com/lane9/news/20034.asp?q=Hayley%20McGregory,%20Nick%20Thoman%20Make%20Move%20to%20North%20Baltimore%20Aquatic%20Club

Nick swam the third fastest time ever in the 100m back last summer: 52.91, which is only .37 off the world record held by Aaron Peirsol and is .10 faster than Michael Phelps' best time of 53.01. Ryan's best time in this event is 53.37. At the Olympic trials, when they raced head-to-head, Ryan came in 3rd and Nick came in 6th. However, Nick improved his time to 52.91 at the U.S. Open meet in August 2008.

Training together will be a huge boost for both Michael Phelps and Nick Thoman, and I'm wondering if Nick was specifically recruited for this role. They conceivably will be able to push each other to new low times in the backstroke events.

This news is bound to make Ryan train even harder. He is certainly capable of beating both Michael and Nick in the 100 and 200 back. Ryan trains with some really good backstrokers at UF, such as Rex Tullius and Omar Pinzon. I hope this will serve as fuel for Ryan's training.

100m back vs. 200m free

The schedule of events for the 2009 U.S. Championships indicates that the men's 100m back and 200m free will be swum back to back. Given that the U.S. Championships serve as trials for the 2009 Worlds in Rome, I'm assuming the order of events will be the same in both meets. Thus, Ryan will need to decide whether he will compete in the individual event for 100 back or 200 free or just swim 200 free in the prelims to qualify for the 800 free relay.

In the 2008 Olympic trials, Ryan elected not to swim the 200 free finals and instead concentrated on the 100 back. He came in 3rd, and did not qualify for the Olympics. Many felt Ryan had a better chance of finishing 1st or 2nd in the 200 free, and thus could have qualified for this individual event if he had elected to swim in the finals. After the Olympics, Ryan faced some criticism and appeared to express some regret at his choice. He will now be faced with the same dilemma in 2009.

I can see why Ryan went for the 100 back. Sure, it may have been a greater risk, but it had a greater reward given that qualifying for the 100 back would have put him in the 400 medley relay and he was already a lock for the 800 free relay due to his 200 free prelim time. Also, Ryan won a silver in the 100 back at the 2007 Worlds. He was the second best in the world in 2007 so why not go for the greater reward. Ryan is not afraid to make gutsy choices so it's not difficult to understand why he went that way. Despite the results at the trials, I think Ryan will choose this route again in 2009.

Here's Ryan's main U.S. competition for the 100m back.

1. Aaron Peirsol
2. Michael Phelps (*should he decide to swim this event*)
3. Matt Grevers
4. Randall Bal
5. Ben Hesen
6. Nick Thoman

Peirsol is the best in this event in the world. He is the current WR holder and has not lost an international competition in this event in something like 8 years. Aaron's WR time of 52.54 is nearly 1 second (.83) faster than Ryan's best time of 53.37 in this event. By contrast, at the 2007 Worlds, when Aaron won and Ryan came in second, Aaron's time was 52.98 and Ryan's time was 53.51, a difference of only .53. Thus, Aaron has improved more than Ryan in this event since 2007. In long course, the 100 only has one turn/wall, and thus probably favors someone like Aaron who may be a better swimmer than someone like Ryan who is a better athlete. If Ryan elects to swim the 100 back at trials next summer, and he wants to beat Aaron, he is going to have to work on technique and improve his time by at least 1 second.

Michael Phelps is an excellent backstroker and can literally win any race at any time. He is capable of winning this event at the U.S. Nationals, having swum a best time of 53.01 in 2007. Michael hasn't competed in the 100m back too often over the last 4 years, but nevertheless has one of the top 10 fastest times in the history of the event. It has been said that Michael is considering adding both the 100 and 200 back events to his schedule in 2009 (Bob Bowman said it in the January 2009 Swimming World Magazine). There is a history of Aaron beating Michael when they race head-to-head, but that appears to be mostly in the 200m back and not the 100. If Michael decides to concentrate on 100 back, or even if he swims it on a whim, he is certainly a threat to win at the U.S. Nationals.

Matt Grevers is a very dangerous threat to Ryan in the 100 back. He may be the biggest threat to Aaron too given his size and improvement over the past three years. Matt has always been good in this event and has improved more than Ryan and Aaron. In the trials for the 2005 worlds, Matt's time was 54.59. At the Beijing Olympics 3 yrs later, his time was 52.99, an improvement of 1.6 seconds and good enough for a silver medal behind Aaron. By contrast, Ryan's best time in 2005 was 54.55, an improvement of 1.04 seconds over 3 years. Aaron's best time in 2005 was 53.62, an improvement of 1.08 seconds over 3 years. If Matt continues to improve, then he may overtake Aaron as the best in the world at this event.

On December 1, 2008, Randall Bal swam a time of 52.59, the second best time ever in the world. He was within .05 of Aaron's WR. Randall is the oldest challenger on this list, currently age 28. He had the fastest time going into the finals at the 2008 Olympic trials, but then came in 4th behind Aaron, Matt and Ryan with a time of 53.48. Later in the year, however, he swam almost a second faster! He's on an upswing, has had tons of disappointments in this event long course, and must be very determined to win a gold medal in Rome. Randall's time has improved from 54.01 in 2005 to 52.59, a difference of 1.42. To make that kind of improvement between the ages of 25 and 28 is huge. Plus this is his signature event along with 50m back. I expect Randall to be a big factor in the 100m back next summer.

Ben Hesen finished his swimming career at Indiana University last year and is currently 22 years old. He continues to train at IU. Ben's specialty is the 50m back, for which he holds the American record and had the 2nd fastest time in the world last year, but he's very, very good at the 100m distance as well. Ben won the 100y back (short course) at the 2008 NCAA championships with a time of 44.72, with the second fastest time ever (Ryan Lochte swam the fastest time ever in 2006, a time of 44.60). Ben is very talented and if he concentrates his training solely on the 50m and 100m backstroke events, he has a very good chance of making the world team in both.

Nick Thoman missed the Olympic team for this event by finishing in 6th place at Trials with a time of 53.79. Then a month later at the U.S. Open, Nick swam a 52.91, which was the second fastest time ever in the world at that point (now the 3rd fastest after Randall Bal's 52.59 in December). After that swim, Nick said, "At Trials I didn't swim my own race. I stayed in my own head here rather than get in everybody else's. The plan is to stick around for four years if my body allows it. I am just ecstatic. I am so excited." If Nick concentrates on this event, he is going to be very dangerous this summer.

This post is already way too long so I'll write about the 200m free next time. It's been fun researching information about Randall Bal, Ben Hesen and Nick Thoman. The 100m back is going to be a very fun event to watch at the 2009 U.S. trials. I think Ryan can do extremely well if he decides to compete and can't wait to see how it plays out.

200m Back

200m back is obviously Ryan's best event in Long Course. He won gold in Beijing and holds the world record.

Who will possibly challenge him in 2009 in making the U.S. team for the World Championships? Based on the the results at the 2008 Olympic trials and other recent news, here are 5 swimmers to watch for this event:

1. Aaron Peirsol
2. Michael Phelps
3. Tyler Clary
4. Rex Tullius
5. Nick Thoman

Peirsol is obvious. His success in this event is evident, and his times over the past 2 years have been equal to or slightly greater than Ryan's. In thinking about the swimmer vs. athlete issue for LC success, it seems that Aaron Peirsol is more of a swimmer than an athlete. Aaron always seems to pull ahead of Ryan during the swimming part of the race and Ryan seems to pull ahead of Aaron during the turns/walls and on overall endurance. If it is true that better swimmers beat better athletes in LC events, then Aaron would seem to have the edge. However, swimming experts say that 200 back is the hardest event on the swimmer's legs and thus endurance and athleticism seem to be a key components. It may be that the "swimmer vs. athlete" maxim does not apply to 200m back. Interesting to think about.

Phelps has indicated recently he may want to swim the 200m back. I say bring it on. MP's involvment in this event would surely provide Ryan with plenty of additional incentive to work hard and improve. It would be so exciting to see Ryan and Michael go head to head in the 200 back. I definitely think Ryan can win.

The other three guys - Clary, Tullius and Thoman - are really talented and very interesting prospects because they are so young. They could conceivably improve in this event over the next 3.5 yrs as much as Ryan did from 2004 to 2008. According to http://www.swimrankings.net/, at the 2004 Olympic trials, Ryan did not even swim 200m back. In fact, his best time in 2004 was 2:02.21. Ryan first swam 200 back in an international LC competition at the 2005 World Championships, where he won a bronze with a time of 1:57.00. Thus, from 2004 to now, Ryan dropped more than 8 seconds off his time down to the current WR of 1:53.94. Amazing!!

Can Clary, Tullius or Thoman do the same? It's certainly possible. It's going to be difficult to assess the progress of Tullius and Clary over the next several months given that they are in college and swimming mostly SC yards. Nevertheless, they are both capable of huge improvement, as is Thoman (who was training at Longhorn Aquatics with Peirsol but recently moved to Florida), and thus it will be interesting to watch. Tullius is at Florida and trains with Ryan so they should be able to push each other quite a bit. Thoman seems to be more of a sprinter, but if he concentrates on 200 back he could be a threat.

If I had to bet on one of them, I'd put money on Clary. He seems to be better at the more grueling races and he came in 3rd in the 200 back at the Olympic trials. Tyler is training hard. GMM's recent interview with him was very interesting. It won't embed here for some reason but can be viewed here:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jzJOazHKxfI

Another interesting question is whether Ryan will continue to improve in this event. As indicated above, from 2004 to 2008, Ryan improved his time by more than 8 seconds. Peirsol, on the other hand, placed first in the 200 back at the Athens Olympics with a time of 1:54.95 and his best time now is 1:54.32, an improvement of only 0.63. The question is whether Ryan will continue to improve at the same rate as the last four years or if his times have leveled off like Peirsol's.

Phelps on Lochte

I started reading Michael Phelps' new book, No Limits: The Will to Succeed and it contains some references to Ryan, who MP calls "Doggy."

In terms of MP's swimming rivalry with Ryan, the following was of particular interest (referencing MP's thoughts on the 400IM race in Beijing):

"Though I respect Lochte immensely, love to race him, understand--I was not afraid of him, concerned about him, worried about him."

MP went on to say that what other swimmers do to prepare for a race is out of his control and that is why he doesn't worry about them. He also emphasized that he respects all of his competitors.

Nevertheless, the quote is telling of MP's view of their rivalry and I hope Ryan will use it as motivation to work especially hard to defeat MP in the future. I like and admire MP, but am rooting for Ryan to beat him in a LC event.