The schedule of events for the 2009 U.S. Championships indicates that the men's 100m back and 200m free will be swum back to back. Given that the U.S. Championships serve as trials for the 2009 Worlds in Rome, I'm assuming the order of events will be the same in both meets. Thus, Ryan will need to decide whether he will compete in the individual event for 100 back or 200 free or just swim 200 free in the prelims to qualify for the 800 free relay.
In the 2008 Olympic trials, Ryan elected not to swim the 200 free finals and instead concentrated on the 100 back. He came in 3rd, and did not qualify for the Olympics. Many felt Ryan had a better chance of finishing 1st or 2nd in the 200 free, and thus could have qualified for this individual event if he had elected to swim in the finals. After the Olympics, Ryan faced some criticism and appeared to express some regret at his choice. He will now be faced with the same dilemma in 2009.
I can see why Ryan went for the 100 back. Sure, it may have been a greater risk, but it had a greater reward given that qualifying for the 100 back would have put him in the 400 medley relay and he was already a lock for the 800 free relay due to his 200 free prelim time. Also, Ryan won a silver in the 100 back at the 2007 Worlds. He was the second best in the world in 2007 so why not go for the greater reward. Ryan is not afraid to make gutsy choices so it's not difficult to understand why he went that way. Despite the results at the trials, I think Ryan will choose this route again in 2009.
Here's Ryan's main U.S. competition for the 100m back.
- Aaron Peirsol
- Michael Phelps (*should he decide to swim this event*)
- Matt Grevers
- Randall Bal
- Ben Hesen
- Nick Thoman
Peirsol is the best in this event in the world. He is the current WR holder and has not lost an international competition in this event in something like 8 years. Aaron's WR time of 52.54 is nearly 1 second (.83) faster than Ryan's best time of 53.37 in this event. By contrast, at the 2007 Worlds, when Aaron won and Ryan came in second, Aaron's time was 52.98 and Ryan's time was 53.51, a difference of only .53. Thus, Aaron has improved more than Ryan in this event since 2007. In long course, the 100 only has one turn/wall, and thus probably favors someone like Aaron who may be a better swimmer than someone like Ryan who is a better athlete. If Ryan elects to swim the 100 back at trials next summer, and he wants to beat Aaron, he is going to have to work on technique and improve his time by at least 1 second.
Michael Phelps is an excellent backstroker and can literally win any race at any time. He is capable of winning this event at the U.S. Nationals, having swum a best time of 53.01 in 2007. Michael hasn't competed in the 100m back too often over the last 4 years, but nevertheless has one of the top 10 fastest times in the history of the event. It has been said that Michael is considering adding both the 100 and 200 back events to his schedule in 2009 (Bob Bowman said it in the January 2009 Swimming World Magazine). There is a history of Aaron beating Michael when they race head-to-head, but that appears to be mostly in the 200m back and not the 100. If Michael decides to concentrate on 100 back, or even if he swims it on a whim, he is certainly a threat to win at the U.S. Nationals.
Matt Grevers is a very dangerous threat to Ryan in the 100 back. He may be the biggest threat to Aaron too given his size and improvement over the past three years. Matt has always been good in this event and has improved more than Ryan and Aaron. In the trials for the 2005 worlds, Matt's time was 54.59. At the Beijing Olympics 3 yrs later, his time was 52.99, an improvement of 1.6 seconds and good enough for a silver medal behind Aaron. By contrast, Ryan's best time in 2005 was 54.55, an improvement of 1.04 seconds over 3 years. Aaron's best time in 2005 was 53.62, an improvement of 1.08 seconds over 3 years. If Matt continues to improve, then he may overtake Aaron as the best in the world at this event.
On December 1, 2008, Randall Bal swam a time of 52.59, the second best time ever in the world. He was within .05 of Aaron's WR. Randall is the oldest challenger on this list, currently age 28. He had the fastest time going into the finals at the 2008 Olympic trials, but then came in 4th behind Aaron, Matt and Ryan with a time of 53.48. Later in the year, however, he swam almost a second faster! He's on an upswing, has had tons of disappointments in this event long course, and must be very determined to win a gold medal in Rome. Randall's time has improved from 54.01 in 2005 to 52.59, a difference of 1.42. To make that kind of improvement between the ages of 25 and 28 is huge. Plus this is his signature event along with 50m back. I expect Randall to be a big factor in the 100m back next summer.
Ben Hesen finished his swimming career at Indiana University last year and is currently 22 years old. He continues to train at IU. Ben's specialty is the 50m back, for which he holds the American record and had the 2nd fastest time in the world last year, but he's very, very good at the 100m distance as well. Ben won the 100y back (short course) at the 2008 NCAA championships with a time of 44.72, with the second fastest time ever (Ryan Lochte swam the fastest time ever in 2006, a time of 44.60). Ben is very talented and if he concentrates his training solely on the 50m and 100m backstroke events, he has a very good chance of making the world team in both.
Nick Thoman missed the Olympic team for this event by finishing in 6th place at Trials with a time of 53.79. Then a month later at the U.S. Open, Nick swam a 52.91, which was the second fastest time ever in the world at that point (now the 3rd fastest after Randall Bal's 52.59 in December). After that swim, Nick said, "At Trials I didn't swim my own race. I stayed in my own head here rather than get in everybody else's. The plan is to stick around for four years if my body allows it. I am just ecstatic. I am so excited." If Nick concentrates on this event, he is going to be very dangerous this summer.
This post is already way too long so I'll write about the 200m free next time. It's been fun researching information about Randall Bal, Ben Hesen and Nick Thoman. The 100m back is going to be a very fun event to watch at the 2009 U.S. trials. I think Ryan can do extremely well if he decides to compete and can't wait to see how it plays out.
Initial thoughts about the world championships: Ryan will swim the same events that he swam in Beijing: 200/400 IM, 200 back and the 4 x 200 free relay. I think he will also swim the 4 x 100 free relay given that his prelim time in the 100 free was the second fastest time at trials.
