Ryan's events at World Championships

World Championships begin on Sunday, July 28th, exactly 4 weeks from today.  This is my analysis of the individual events Ryan is entered in.  The relays are discussed briefly, but I would like to do a separate analysis devoted solely to the relays.

Sunday, July 28th

4 x 100m free relay - prelims and finals

Ryan finished 4th in the 100m free at Nationals.  This automatically qualifies him for the relay, yet the lineup is a coach's decision.  Bob Bowman in the head men's coach.  Ryan's coach, Gregg Troy, is not an assistant coach for the men's team.  I don't know if that means he will not be making the trip to Barcelona or if he will still go to coach Ryan, just not officially.

Does Ryan automatically get the evening only swim?  Or does he have to swim the prelims to prove he's worthy of the finals.  It will be interesting to find out.  I suspect Ryan will have to swim in the prelims and prove he is fast enough to swim in the finals.

Monday, July 29th

200m free - prelims and semi-finals

Tuesday, July 30th

200m free - finals

Ryan posted the 5th fastest time of 2013 at Nationals - 1:45.97.  Those with faster times are:

• Sun Yang 1:44.99
• Yannick Agnel 1:45.48
• Jeremy Stravius 1:45.61
• Thomas Fraser-Holmes 1:45.79.  

Rounding out the top 10 times of the year are:

• Cameron McEvoy 1:46.03
• Conor Dwyer 1:46.25
• Kosuke Hagino 1:46.28
• Danila Izotov 1:46.37
• Nikita Lobintsev 1:46.59

I think Ryan has a good chance to medal in this event at Worlds.  There are a lot of big names missing.  Agnel is not going to swim it.  Neither is Tae Hwan Park nor Paul Beidermann.  The only other swimmer in the top 10 who has beat Ryan previously is Sun Yang.  While Yang is absolutely formidable, if Ryan can rest his legs more in the next 4 weeks and regain his devastating walls, I think he can beat Yang.

Wednesday, July 31st

200 IM - prelims and semi-finals

Thursday, August 1st

200 back - prelims and semi-finals

200 IM - finals

Ryan posted the fastest time of 2013 in the 200m IM at Nationals - 1:55.44.  The other swimmers in the top 10 include:

• Kosuke Hagino 1:55.74
• Henrique Rodrigues 1:57.37
• Thiago Pereira 1:57.48
• Shun Wang 1:57.50
• Daniel Tranter 1:57.55
• Conor Dwyer 1:57.74
• Jeremy Stravius 1:57.89
• Dayia Seto 1:58.14 (tied for 9th)
• Roberto Pavoni 1:58.14 (tied for 9th)

This is Ryan's best chance for a gold medal.  No other swimmer in the top 10 has been below 1:55 and Ryan has done it multiple times.  Hagino is intriguing though and probably has the best chance of giving Ryan a fight.  I hope he does because that may push Ryan toward a record.  It's difficult to imagine him breaking his WR and getting below 1:54 without racing Michael Phelps, but this is one of his best chances, especially if he is pushed by Hagino.  Having the 200m back prelims that morning before the 200m IM finals is not going to hurt Ryan.

Friday, August 2nd

200m back - finals

100m fly - prelims and semi-finals

4 x 200m free relay - prelims and finals

Friday is Ryan's toughest day.  He has a triple in the evening, one of which is a final in his toughest event.  This day is really going to test Ryan's training and abilities.

Ryan posted the 3rd fastest time in 2013 in the 200m back at Nationals - 1:55.16.  The 2 faster times are:

• Ryosuke Irie 1:54.72
• Kosuke Hagino 1:55.12

The rest of the top 10 are:

• Tyler Clary 1:55.58
• Radoslaw Kawecki 1:56.14
• Craig McNally 1:56.36
• Ryan Murphy 1:56.37 (not swimming in Barcelona)
• Peter Berneck 1:56.54
• Matson Lawson 1:56.59
• Yannick Lebherz 1:56.71

The 200m back will be Ryan's toughest event - even tougher than the 200m free.  Irie has always been a difficult challenge, beating Ryan in 2009 in Rome and in 2012 in London.  Hagino I believe has never been below 1:55 so I'm not as concerned about him.  Clary is certainly capable of winning as he proved in London.  This is going to be a tough race.  Ryan likely will only have the 100m fly prelims in the morning and the 200m back final is the first men's race of Friday evening.  Thus, fatigue should not be a factor in the 200m back, except that the race comes toward the end of a long week.

Ryan will probably anchor the 4 x 200 free relay or lead it off with Conor Dwyer as anchor.  I know Ricky Berens did not swim his best at Nationals, but I could also see him leading off or anchoring this relay.

Saturday, August 3rd

100m fly - finals

Ryan posted the 6th fastest time in 2013 in the 100m fly at trials - 51.71.  The five faster times are:

• Steffan Diebler 51.19
• Evgeny Korotyshkin 51.53
• Chad LeClos 51.64
• Eugene Godsoe 51.66
• Matteo Rivolta 51.70

The rest of the top 10 is:

• Christopher Wright 51.77
• Konrad Czerniak 51.79
• Timothy Philips 51.86 (not swimming in Barcelona)
• Michael Rock 51.91

Ryan will have a tough time medaling in this event.  All of the five swimmers above him are formidable opponents with a lot of experience in this event.  Eugene Godsoe may be new to the international scene, but he's a very experienced swimmer and has swum this event for years.  As Ryan said at trials, he is still learning how to swim it.  As soon as I find the video of the 100m fly from trials, I encourage you to watch the end, where Ryan glided to the wall and not only lost the race but almost came in 3rd.  Over the next 4 weeks he should be able to fine-tune his 100m fly to improve dramatically.  He has the speed and endurance to do very well in this event the only question is does he have the experience.  

Sunday, August 4th

4 x 100m medley relay - prelims and finals

The issue here is will Ryan be chosen by Coach Bowman to swim in the prelims or the finals.  I think it depends on how he does in the 100m fly individual event.  If he does well but Godsoe is faster, then Ryan will swim in the prelims.  If Ryan does better than Godsoe in the individual event, he will swim in the finals of the relay.  

Very Impressive Double

1st in 200m free - 1:45.97 - 5th fastest time in the world this year



1st in 200m back - 1:55.16 - 3rd fastest time in the world this year

Who knew Ryan is a sprinter

4th place in the 100 free and a spot on the 4 x 100 free relay.  Personal best time of 48.58 despite a bad start.

200 back and 200 free today

Kelli Anderson Sports Illustrated Article About Ryan

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/more/news/20130603/missy-franklin-ryan-lochte-santa-clara-grand-prix/

Or, say, 28 -- like another Olympic celebrity Ryan Lochte. To hear him tell it, Lochte's immersion in the post-Olympic high life nearly sank his career. After returning from London with five medals, including two golds, he hit the talk show, photo shoot and red-carpet circuits; canoodled with childhood crush Carmen Electra; made cameos on 30 Rock and Beverly Hills 90210; and starred in his own reality TV show, What Would Ryan Lochte Do?, which recently aired on E! to mixed reviews.

"You name it, I did it," said Lochte as he sat on a bench outside the swim center's office after winning the 400 IM and the 200 back on Saturday. "After the Olympics, I wasn't swimming, I was doing all this other stuff that most people only dream about doing. I was partying, hitting red carpets, and being a celeb. I was meeting all these people and I was like, 'Man, this is awesome!' Why would I want to go back and train for three four hours every day when I'm living the life? You get sucked into that lifestyle. It takes over, just like that."

Lochte, who had never taken a significant break from swimming, says the pool was barely a thought for several months. "There were a few times this year when I said, I don't want to swim anymore. I'm done," he says. When he did finally show up to practice at the University of Florida, his coach, Gregg Troy, spelled out his diminishing prospects. "He said, 'You're not going to be remembered in the next couple years if you keep this up, you're not going to make the Olympic team,'" says Lochte. "Once he started talking about my dreams, I was like, crap, I don't want to be one of those guys, ten years down the road who is saying, what if I had just stuck with it?"

Even after that gut check, Lochte's training was interrupted by other commitments, including his eight-week reality TV shoot and the ensuing promotional tour, which included trips to New York, LA, and Miami. The fact that the show has not been met with universal acclaim -- even Troy, who is not a fan of reality TV in general, admits he only watched ten minutes of the first episode -- doesn't faze Lochte. "I hear people loving it and I hear haters -- oh my god, what a waste of time!" says Lochte. "But you know what, I'm living my life the way I want to live it. I'm okay. I was having fun doing that show. But I know I'm an athlete, not an actor."

With that adventure behind him, Lochte cancelled all his commitments and "turned down a lot of money," he says, in the last five weeks to focus on training. "I've probably put in the best four or five weeks of my life," he says. It paid off in Santa Clara: In addition to wins in the 400m individual medley, the 200m back, the 100m fly, and the 200m IM, Lochte claimed second in the 100m free, just behind Olympic champ Nathan Adrian. He says he doesn't know what he'll be swimming at the world championship trials in Indianapolis June 25-29, but its unlikely he'll do both the 400m IM and the 100m fly, which are scheduled back-to-back on Day 3.

However Lochte fares in Indy and at the Worlds in Barcleona later this summer, he'll be making changes in the fall. After 11 years in Gainesville, he's moving -- he won't say where to -- to get a different kind of training. He'll keep a place in town so he can still train with Troy on occasion. "I've already talked to him and he's okay with it," says Lochte. "Instead of being full time with him, I'm going to be going other places and doing other things."

In the next three years, he promises, those "other things" won't exclude training. "I don't know what to expect this summer because my training has not been there," he says. "So I'm taking what I can get. It's a learning experience. Living the celeb life has been fun, but I don't think I can do it full time again."

Read More: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/more/news/20130603/missy-franklin-ryan-lochte-santa-clara-grand-prix/#ixzz2VD9A2f31

Event Order at US Nationals/Worlds Trials - June 25 to 29, 2013

Ryan's potential events are in yellow.  There are a couple of tough possible doubles.  He'll definitely have to choose between the 400 IM and the 100 fly.  Having won the past 2 world championships & the Olympic championship in the 400 IM, I hope he chooses that event.

Day 1 (Tuesday, June 25)

200 fly
100 free
800 free (W)
1500 free (M)
4 x 100 free relay

Day 2 (Wednesday, June 26)

200 free
200 breast
200 back
50 fly
4 x 200 free relay (M)

Day 3 (Thursday, June 27)

400 IM
100 fly
50 breast
50 back
4 x 200 free relay (W)

Day 4 (Friday, June 28)

400 free
100 breast
100 back
4 x 100 medley relay

Day 5 (Saturday, June 29)

1500 free (W)
200 IM
800 free (M)
50 free

Santa Clara Results

100m Fly - 1st



400m IM - 1st



100m free - 2nd



200m back - 1st