Ryan's events at World Championships

World Championships begin on Sunday, July 28th, exactly 4 weeks from today.  This is my analysis of the individual events Ryan is entered in.  The relays are discussed briefly, but I would like to do a separate analysis devoted solely to the relays.

Sunday, July 28th

4 x 100m free relay - prelims and finals

Ryan finished 4th in the 100m free at Nationals.  This automatically qualifies him for the relay, yet the lineup is a coach's decision.  Bob Bowman in the head men's coach.  Ryan's coach, Gregg Troy, is not an assistant coach for the men's team.  I don't know if that means he will not be making the trip to Barcelona or if he will still go to coach Ryan, just not officially.

Does Ryan automatically get the evening only swim?  Or does he have to swim the prelims to prove he's worthy of the finals.  It will be interesting to find out.  I suspect Ryan will have to swim in the prelims and prove he is fast enough to swim in the finals.

Monday, July 29th

200m free - prelims and semi-finals

Tuesday, July 30th

200m free - finals

Ryan posted the 5th fastest time of 2013 at Nationals - 1:45.97.  Those with faster times are:

• Sun Yang 1:44.99
• Yannick Agnel 1:45.48
• Jeremy Stravius 1:45.61
• Thomas Fraser-Holmes 1:45.79.  

Rounding out the top 10 times of the year are:

• Cameron McEvoy 1:46.03
• Conor Dwyer 1:46.25
• Kosuke Hagino 1:46.28
• Danila Izotov 1:46.37
• Nikita Lobintsev 1:46.59

I think Ryan has a good chance to medal in this event at Worlds.  There are a lot of big names missing.  Agnel is not going to swim it.  Neither is Tae Hwan Park nor Paul Beidermann.  The only other swimmer in the top 10 who has beat Ryan previously is Sun Yang.  While Yang is absolutely formidable, if Ryan can rest his legs more in the next 4 weeks and regain his devastating walls, I think he can beat Yang.

Wednesday, July 31st

200 IM - prelims and semi-finals

Thursday, August 1st

200 back - prelims and semi-finals

200 IM - finals

Ryan posted the fastest time of 2013 in the 200m IM at Nationals - 1:55.44.  The other swimmers in the top 10 include:

• Kosuke Hagino 1:55.74
• Henrique Rodrigues 1:57.37
• Thiago Pereira 1:57.48
• Shun Wang 1:57.50
• Daniel Tranter 1:57.55
• Conor Dwyer 1:57.74
• Jeremy Stravius 1:57.89
• Dayia Seto 1:58.14 (tied for 9th)
• Roberto Pavoni 1:58.14 (tied for 9th)

This is Ryan's best chance for a gold medal.  No other swimmer in the top 10 has been below 1:55 and Ryan has done it multiple times.  Hagino is intriguing though and probably has the best chance of giving Ryan a fight.  I hope he does because that may push Ryan toward a record.  It's difficult to imagine him breaking his WR and getting below 1:54 without racing Michael Phelps, but this is one of his best chances, especially if he is pushed by Hagino.  Having the 200m back prelims that morning before the 200m IM finals is not going to hurt Ryan.

Friday, August 2nd

200m back - finals

100m fly - prelims and semi-finals

4 x 200m free relay - prelims and finals

Friday is Ryan's toughest day.  He has a triple in the evening, one of which is a final in his toughest event.  This day is really going to test Ryan's training and abilities.

Ryan posted the 3rd fastest time in 2013 in the 200m back at Nationals - 1:55.16.  The 2 faster times are:

• Ryosuke Irie 1:54.72
• Kosuke Hagino 1:55.12

The rest of the top 10 are:

• Tyler Clary 1:55.58
• Radoslaw Kawecki 1:56.14
• Craig McNally 1:56.36
• Ryan Murphy 1:56.37 (not swimming in Barcelona)
• Peter Berneck 1:56.54
• Matson Lawson 1:56.59
• Yannick Lebherz 1:56.71

The 200m back will be Ryan's toughest event - even tougher than the 200m free.  Irie has always been a difficult challenge, beating Ryan in 2009 in Rome and in 2012 in London.  Hagino I believe has never been below 1:55 so I'm not as concerned about him.  Clary is certainly capable of winning as he proved in London.  This is going to be a tough race.  Ryan likely will only have the 100m fly prelims in the morning and the 200m back final is the first men's race of Friday evening.  Thus, fatigue should not be a factor in the 200m back, except that the race comes toward the end of a long week.

Ryan will probably anchor the 4 x 200 free relay or lead it off with Conor Dwyer as anchor.  I know Ricky Berens did not swim his best at Nationals, but I could also see him leading off or anchoring this relay.

Saturday, August 3rd

100m fly - finals

Ryan posted the 6th fastest time in 2013 in the 100m fly at trials - 51.71.  The five faster times are:

• Steffan Diebler 51.19
• Evgeny Korotyshkin 51.53
• Chad LeClos 51.64
• Eugene Godsoe 51.66
• Matteo Rivolta 51.70

The rest of the top 10 is:

• Christopher Wright 51.77
• Konrad Czerniak 51.79
• Timothy Philips 51.86 (not swimming in Barcelona)
• Michael Rock 51.91

Ryan will have a tough time medaling in this event.  All of the five swimmers above him are formidable opponents with a lot of experience in this event.  Eugene Godsoe may be new to the international scene, but he's a very experienced swimmer and has swum this event for years.  As Ryan said at trials, he is still learning how to swim it.  As soon as I find the video of the 100m fly from trials, I encourage you to watch the end, where Ryan glided to the wall and not only lost the race but almost came in 3rd.  Over the next 4 weeks he should be able to fine-tune his 100m fly to improve dramatically.  He has the speed and endurance to do very well in this event the only question is does he have the experience.  

Sunday, August 4th

4 x 100m medley relay - prelims and finals

The issue here is will Ryan be chosen by Coach Bowman to swim in the prelims or the finals.  I think it depends on how he does in the 100m fly individual event.  If he does well but Godsoe is faster, then Ryan will swim in the prelims.  If Ryan does better than Godsoe in the individual event, he will swim in the finals of the relay.