NCAA Swimming - Ryan's Records

Ryan Lochte currently holds individual NCAA records in the following events:

200 yard IM - 1:40.55 (Ryan's best time is 1:40.08, which is the American record)
400 yard IM - 3:38.15 (Ryan's best time is 3:37.88. Michael Phelps has the American record at 3:36.26)
100 yard Back - 44.60 (This is still Ryan's best time and is also the American Record)
200 yard Back - 1:37.68 (Ryan's best time is 1:36.81, which is the American record)

The NCAA conference championships have started, and nobody has broken any of Ryan's records.....yet.

200 yard IM

At the Big 10 championships today, Tyler Clary swam a 1:44.34 in the prelims of the 200 yard IM, setting a pool record. It looks like Alex Vanderkaay's Big 10 record (1:43.88) is going down in the finals. Bradley Ally of Florida swam a 1:41.96 in the SEC Championships last weekend and I predict Clary will go faster tonight. Ryan's record of 1:40.55 is probably safe.

400 yard IM

In the 400IM, Clary is the fastest in the NCAA this year with a time of 3:40.96. Ally swam 3:41.35 at the SEC championships, the second fastest time. Ryan's record of 3:38.15 appears safe.

100 yard Back

Eugene Godsoe of Stanford has the fastest time in the NCAA this year with a 45.94. He will be swimming in the Pac 10 championships this weekend, and it will be interesting to see how fast he can go. The second fastest time - 46.04 - is from Pascal Wollach of Auburn at the SEC championships. I've never heard of either of these swimmers before so I'll have to do a little research. Ryan's record of 44.60 appears safe, but you never know.

200 yard Back

Clary has the 4th best time in the NCAA this year with a 1:40.85. Rex Tullius and Omar Pinzon of Florida swam the 1st and 2nd fastest times: 1:39.88 and 1:40.15 at the SEC championships. Godsoe had the third fastest time, 1:40.61. It will be interesting to see if Clary beats those times at the Big 10 championships. Prior to the SEC championships, Clary had the best NCAA time in the nation in this event. Ryan's record of 1:37.68 probably will not be broken.

Prediction: I do not think any of Ryan's NCAA records will be broken this year. However, if I had to pick one, my prediction would be the 400IM. Clary keeps getting faster and faster and there is much room for improvement in a longer race. Clary's best time is 2.81 seconds slower than Ryan's record; however, he has not competed in this event yet in his conference championship or the NCAA championships. Therefore, his time of 3:40.96 presumably was achieved while unrested. I think he can go a lot faster when he is rested.

I doubt if Ryan cares too much if his NCAA records are broken. Unlike with world records, there's nothing Ryan can do about it because his college career ended in 2006 and he can't swim in any more NCAA events.

It's interesting, though, to view Ryan's records as a testiment to how good he was 3 years ago compared to the some of the best swimmers in the world today.

200m Back

200m back is obviously Ryan's best event in Long Course. He won gold in Beijing and holds the world record.

Who will possibly challenge him in 2009 in making the U.S. team for the World Championships? Based on the the results at the 2008 Olympic trials and other recent news, here are 5 swimmers to watch for this event:

1. Aaron Peirsol
2. Michael Phelps
3. Tyler Clary
4. Rex Tullius
5. Nick Thoman

Peirsol is obvious. His success in this event is evident, and his times over the past 2 years have been equal to or slightly greater than Ryan's. In thinking about the swimmer vs. athlete issue for LC success, it seems that Aaron Peirsol is more of a swimmer than an athlete. Aaron always seems to pull ahead of Ryan during the swimming part of the race and Ryan seems to pull ahead of Aaron during the turns/walls and on overall endurance. If it is true that better swimmers beat better athletes in LC events, then Aaron would seem to have the edge. However, swimming experts say that 200 back is the hardest event on the swimmer's legs and thus endurance and athleticism seem to be a key components. It may be that the "swimmer vs. athlete" maxim does not apply to 200m back. Interesting to think about.

Phelps has indicated recently he may want to swim the 200m back. I say bring it on. MP's involvment in this event would surely provide Ryan with plenty of additional incentive to work hard and improve. It would be so exciting to see Ryan and Michael go head to head in the 200 back. I definitely think Ryan can win.

The other three guys - Clary, Tullius and Thoman - are really talented and very interesting prospects because they are so young. They could conceivably improve in this event over the next 3.5 yrs as much as Ryan did from 2004 to 2008. According to http://www.swimrankings.net/, at the 2004 Olympic trials, Ryan did not even swim 200m back. In fact, his best time in 2004 was 2:02.21. Ryan first swam 200 back in an international LC competition at the 2005 World Championships, where he won a bronze with a time of 1:57.00. Thus, from 2004 to now, Ryan dropped more than 8 seconds off his time down to the current WR of 1:53.94. Amazing!!

Can Clary, Tullius or Thoman do the same? It's certainly possible. It's going to be difficult to assess the progress of Tullius and Clary over the next several months given that they are in college and swimming mostly SC yards. Nevertheless, they are both capable of huge improvement, as is Thoman (who was training at Longhorn Aquatics with Peirsol but recently moved to Florida), and thus it will be interesting to watch. Tullius is at Florida and trains with Ryan so they should be able to push each other quite a bit. Thoman seems to be more of a sprinter, but if he concentrates on 200 back he could be a threat.

If I had to bet on one of them, I'd put money on Clary. He seems to be better at the more grueling races and he came in 3rd in the 200 back at the Olympic trials. Tyler is training hard. GMM's recent interview with him was very interesting. It won't embed here for some reason but can be viewed here:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jzJOazHKxfI

Another interesting question is whether Ryan will continue to improve in this event. As indicated above, from 2004 to 2008, Ryan improved his time by more than 8 seconds. Peirsol, on the other hand, placed first in the 200 back at the Athens Olympics with a time of 1:54.95 and his best time now is 1:54.32, an improvement of only 0.63. The question is whether Ryan will continue to improve at the same rate as the last four years or if his times have leveled off like Peirsol's.