In my opinion, Ryan Lochte should not have been left out of the finals of the 400m free relay and he should not have had to swim prelims to prove his ability. Ryan was on the winning relay in 2009 and 2010 and he performed very well both times. At Pan Pacs his split was 47.98, faster than Lezak. He is the best or second best swimmer on the team. When the stakes are high, you put your best swimmer out there. It's like selecting the best athlete in the NFL draft.
The coaches decided to put him in the prelims and he had the 3rd best time behind GWG and Dave Walters. (2nd best actual time, 3rd best when you factor in the flat start for GWG, the first swimmer). In my view Ryan still should have been selected for the finals even under those circumstances.
The time differences were very small. GWG's prelim time was 48.49. Subtract .5 for the flat start and he's at 47.99. Lochte's time was 48.28, .29 slower. Walters' time was 48.11. GWG was selected for the finals and his time was 48.33 from a relay start, so effectively .34 slower than prelims.
Many people say that the decision about who to place in the finals should be based on time alone. If GWG beat Ryan by .29 then he should swim in the finals not Ryan. I think this kind of black and white rule is short sighted and doesn't consider all the factors at play.
Australia didn't follow that rule and they won gold. In the prelims, Eamon Sullivan's time was 48.71. James Roberts' time was 48.25. Under the black and white rule it's a no brainer. Roberts swims in the finals and Sullivan doesn't. But the Australians chose Sullivan because he has a lot more experience. He's a better swimmer overall. In the finals, Sullivan's time was 47.72, virtually a second faster.
Who is to say that Lochte wouldn't have gone a second faster in the finals? There's no reason to think he wouldn't improve as much as Sullivan. Lochte qualified for four individual events. He was the swimmer of the year in 2010. He killed everyone at SC Worlds in Dubai. He's the only swimmer to set an individual world record in a jammer since 2009. If you're going to bet on someone doing well, why not bet on him over two swimmers who made the team in relays only.
Let's look at the numbers if Lochte had swum in the finals and improved as much as Sullivan did. That would mean Lochte's time would be 47.29, more than a second faster than GWG. That would have been enough for the gold.
I don't know if Ryan could have swum that fast, but if you know the competition is tough don't you want your best swimmer in the race? Australia decided to do it that way by choosing Sullivan over Roberts and look where it got them.
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